Innovation Hub 13Regional Foresight → Flughafenregion Szenarioanalyse

Analysis of the future of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport region as a location for science and innovation


Project duration: 2021/2022

Project background

With the opening of the Berlin Brandenburg Airport "Willy Brandt" (BER) in October 2020, the construction of the Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide and the Microvast battery factory in Ludwigsfelde starting in summer 2020, as well as numerous real estate development projects in the immediate vicinity of the airport, clear signals are being sent for the dawn of a new phase of development for the BER airport region.

What is an airport region?

International airports are important gateways to the world which have the function of ensuring that entire nations and regions can be connected to the full diversity of global exchange. The exchange of knowledge via face-to-face contacts plays a special role here [1]. In fulfilling this function, airports interact with numerous developments within their spatial environs. As well as utilising them, they also exert a range of direct and indirect effects on their environment [2]. Functional spaces are then created, which are referred to as airport regions.

[1] Vgl. Droß, Michael/Thierstein, Andreas (2011): „Wissensökonomie als Entwicklungstreiber von Flughafenregionen – das Beispiel München“, in: Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, Heft 1.2011, S. 27-36.

[2] Vgl. Voß, Rainer (2002): Regionale Innovationssysteme als Gegenstand eines neuen Forschungsverbundes der Region Berlin-Brandenburg, in: Voß, Rainer (Hg.), Regionale Innovationssysteme, Wildauer Schriftenreihe, Band 2, Berlin, Verlag News & Media, S. 25-46.

This development has been held back of course by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has particularly affected airlines and airports, but also other supplier industries and municipalities surrounding the airport.

During this time of great uncertainty, TUAS Wildau decided to implement a scenario analysis on the future of the BER airport region to make various regional actors aware about the possible future and to develop future-proof courses of action together with them. The scenario analysis has been carried out as part of the Regional Foresight, which is part of the Innovation Hub 13 transfer project and is funded by the BMBF as part of the Innovative University initiative. During the preparatory phase of the scenario analysis, coordination took place with the dialogue forum BER and complan Kommunalberatung GmbH, which was commissioned to update the common structural concept (CSC) of the airport region. The goal of the coordination was to integrate the scenario analysis into the planned activities of the region, a suitable regional setting for the scenario analysis, its orientation of content and the selection of groups of actors who are to be involved as participants and/or addressees.

Regional settings

The scenario analysis is based on the following regional setting:

Regional settings of the airport region for the scenario analysis: Blankenfelde-Mahlow; Eichwalde; Fürstenwalde; Gosen-Neu Zittau; Großbeeren; Grünheide; Königs Wusterhausen; Lübben; Luckenwalde; Ludwigsfelde; Mittenwalde; Rangsdorf; Schönefeld; Schulzendorf; Teltow; Wildau; Zeuthen; Berlin Neukölln; Berlin Tempelhof-Schöneberg; Berlin Treptow-Köpenick

[3] Vgl. GSK (2007): Gemeinsames Strukturkonzept Flughafenumfeld Berlin Brandenburg International (BBI). Gemeinsame Landesplanungsabteilung Berlin-Brandenburg. Hrsg.: Ministerium für Infrastruktur und Raumordnung und Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung, S. 1-34.

These are oriented towards the regional settings from the overall structural concept for the airport region [3], expanded to include the two regional growth centres of Fürstenwalde and Luckenwalde, the technology location Teltow, the municipality of Grünheide as a Tesla location and the district capital of Lübben as a potential location for science.

[3] Vgl. GSK (2007): Gemeinsames Strukturkonzept Flughafenumfeld Berlin Brandenburg International (BBI). Gemeinsame Landesplanungsabteilung Berlin-Brandenburg. Hrsg.: Ministerium für Infrastruktur und Raumordnung und Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung, S. 1-34.

Goals and procedure

Based on the results of a region analysis by TUAS Wildau [4] from 2020, the scenario analysis investigated how the airport region can distinguish itself as a location for science and innovation by 2035, and whether and which options for specialisation in the fields of business and science are possible.

The visions for the future developed in the participatory scenario analysis process, including the associated opportunities and risks, are intended to make regional actors from the fields of science, business and administration aware of the different futures, and to form a foundation stone for deriving strategies to shape the region.

Regional actors are involved in the phases of the scenario analysis process in specific ways. A forum shall be provided to exchange and illustrate different points of view. This shall offer an opportunity to create a common understanding for the future, which in turn will form the basis for coordinated action.

Initial situation

A dynamically developing airport region


  • Tesla builds a gigafactory in Grünheide
  • Battery manufacturer Microvast opens its European headquarters in Ludwigsfelde
  • The RKI's Artificial Intelligence and Public Health department is located in Wildau
  • Numerous real estate development projects in the immediate vicinity of the airport
  • Considerable scientific and technological potential


  • Lacking public perception as an airport region both externally and internally
  • Insufficient public participation
  • Governance structures open to development

The scenario analysis process is divided into several phases:

  1. Preparatory phase, in particular coordination of the questions at hand, addressees, and participants as well as the time outlook, analysis of the status quo,
  2. Common understanding of influential factors and derivation of key factors by the foresight team,
  3. Joint development of future projections and development and communication of scenarios by the foresight team,
  4. Joint derivation of opportunities and risks as well as development of approaches for action [5].

[4] Vgl. Mietzner, Dana/ Hartmann, Frank/ Melzer, Klaus-Martin/ Vossel, Markus/ Bautz, Franziska/ Wiechers, Henning (2020): Die Rolle von Wissenschaft und Innovation in der Flughafenumfeldregion: Herausforderungen und Perspektiven. [Online]. Verfügbar unter: [letzter Zugriff: 08.04.2021].

[5] Vgl. Mietzner, D. (2009). Strategische Vorausschau und Szenarioanalysen. Methodenevaluation und neue Ansätze. Gabler Research. Innovation und Technologie im modernen Management. Hrsg.: Reger, G. und Wagner, D., Wiesbaden 2009. Gabler.

The future of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport region as a location for science and innovation in 2035.




Nachfolgend sind der Verlauf der Szenarioanalyse sowie deren Ergebnisse dokumentiert.


Partial and interim results


Scenario analysis 

The scenario analysis is a participatory process that involves different regional actors in its conception and implementation. The scenario analysis process ranges from a preparatory phase, in which the procedure was agreed and a status quo analysis was carried out, to a joint determination of influential factors and the selection of key factors, the development of future projections in teams and their elaboration by the scenario team, to the development of scenarios and a subsequent backcasting process to elaborate approaches for action.

From future projections to scenarios

At the second workshop in October 2021, 19 regional actors developed 52 future projections for 14 key factors. These 52 future projections were processed by the scenario team, each of which was subjected to a consistency analysis. This meant that all future projections were checked and evaluated to see if they were related and to what extent they were compatible with one another. The consistency analysis was carried out using the Scenario Manager ScMI tool (cf. ScMI (no year). Scenario manager. [last accessed on 02/16/2022])

→ Future projections
→ Raw scenarios 

The listings in "The BER airport region as a science and innovation location in 2035" present the two scenarios developed - centrally controlled industrialisation and decentralised specialisation bottom-up - described as a narrative and graphically implemented. They represent an important interim result of the scenario analysis.

→ "The BER airport region as a science and innovation location in 2035"





1. Centrally controlled industrialisation

2. Decentralised specialisation bottom-up

Graphics © Dr. Franziska Schwarz | sci|vi|sto

From scenarios to opportunities and risks

Considering these two scenarios, the scenario team determined the opportunities and risks for a desirable future for the airport region as a location for science and innovation. They form a starting point for developing approaches along with regional actors in the subsequent transfer phase of the scenario analysis.

→ Opportunities and risks

Von den Chancen und Risiken zu den Handlungsansätzen

Im Rahmen der Szenarioanalyse wurden in einem zweistufigen Prozess gemeinsam mit Akteurinnen und Akteuren der Region vor dem Hintergrund der beiden Szenarien „Zentral gesteuerte Industrialisierung“ und „Dezentrale Spezialisierung bottom-up“ Handlungsansätze entwickelt und konkretisiert. Im ersten Schritt erfolgte die Herausarbeitung von Handlungsansätzen in der individuellen Diskussion mit ausgewählten Kompetenzträger:innen. Im Ergebnis entstanden 30 Handlungsansätze, die verschiedene Themenbereiche betreffen und einen unterschiedlichen Allgemeinheitsgrad aufweisen. Um die in den Gesprächen herausgearbeiteten Handlungsansätze zu spezifizieren, wurde im zweiten Schritt ein Workshop mit 14 Akteurinnen und Akteuren aus der Region durchgeführt, auf dem diese die Möglichkeit hatten, die vorliegenden Handlungsansätze kennenzulernen und in Teams weiterzubearbeiten. Hierbei ging es ersten um die Einschätzung der Wirkungsintensität von Handlungsansätzen sowie deren Zeithorizonte und zweitens um die Zuordnung der Handlungsansätze zu Akteurinnen und Akteuren. 

Im Folgenden werden die Handlungsansätze gruppiert nach Themenfeldern und ihrer Wirkungsintensität dargestellt: 

→ Handlungsansätze


Im Rahmen des Szenarioanalyseprozesses fanden verschiedene Veranstaltungen statt. Weitere Informationen zum Download finden Sie hier.

Workshop 2: Future projections

Second scenario analysis workshop for the future of the BER airport region

The second scenario analysis workshop on the future of the BER airport region as a science and innovation location took place on October 7, 2021, between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. at the locations of TUAS Wildau and the Potsdam University of Applied Sciences in Luckenwalde.

Based on the results of the first workshop, in which participants in teams identified factors influencing development, this second workshop focused on the participatory elaboration of future projections. The future projections were again developed in various mixed teams and related to the key factors identified by the Innovation Hub 13 scenario team. The location in Luckenwalde provided a particularly suitable setting for a creative and analogue workshop format. A coworking space, a makerspace and a showroom were all integrated within it. The Innovation Hub 13 foresight team was once again very happy after a considerable time to again seize the opportunity to work on creative solutions together with regional actors on site .

To the program →

Factors influencing the development of the BER airport region →

Key factors in the development of the BER airport region →

Workshop 1: Drivers and obstacles

First scenario analysis workshop for the future of the BER airport region

On June 11th, the kick-off workshop “Drivers and Obstacles” took place as a component of the scenario analysis. Remotely and digitally, 28 participants from business, science, local administration, and politics jointly established the factors significantly impacting upon the development of the airport region. The four mixed teams identified more than 200 influencing factors, which were then worked through by the scenario team and presented to the participants again. From the resulting set of influencing factors, key factors were identified by an influence analysis, taking into consideration the influencing factors prioritised by the participants. This then formed a basis for elaborating future projections and scenarios. The following workshop will deal with the joint development of such future projections and will probably take place in September and be open to other interested parties from the region.

To the program →

To the introductory presentation →


Dr. Frank Hartmann
research group Innovation and Regional Research
Technical University of Applied Sciences Wildau

Innovation Hub 13 – fast track to transfer

research group Innovation and Regional Research

Further materials on airport environment analysis

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Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus-Senftenberg


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The "Innovation Hub 13 - Fast Track to Transfer" of the Technical University of Wildau and the Brandenburg Technical University of Cottbus-Senftenberg is one of the 29 selected winners of the federal government funding initiative "Innovative College", equipped with funds of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research BMBF And the state of Brandenburg. Further information can be found at